Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

Acronym:

POLES

Liaise ownership:

no

Description:

The POLES model is a partial equilibrium model for the world energy system up to 2030. The model is constructed at a world level, with detailed treatment of several large countries. POLES connects international, regional and national sub-models. Each region is modelled using four modules: 1) final energy demand by sector; 2) new and renewable energy technologies; 3) the conventional energy and transformation system; and 4) primary energy supply.
The model is mainly used for:
• running world energy scenarios (energy demand, supply, trade, prices) by world region;
• inter-technology substitution over time;
• simulation of CO2 emission constraints and emissions trading;
• analysing the impact of technological change on emission baselines and constrained cases.
For each of the 40 world regions considered, the model has four main modules dealing with:
• final energy demand by main sector;
• new and renewable energy technologies;
• the conventional energy and electricity transformation system;
• fossil fuel supply

Input variables:

The energy-balance data for the POLES model are extracted from an international energy database, which also includes international macro-economic data, the structure of economic activity, deflators and exchange rates. Technico-economic data (energy prices, equipment rates, costs of energy technologies, etc.) are gathered both from international and national statistics.

Output variables:

The POLES model provides detailed yearly energy forecasts up to 2030:<br />
• for 40 countries and world regions;<br />
• for 12 sectors;<br />
• for 12 renewable-energy technologies and 12 electricity-generation technologies<br />

Documentation for the end user:

Scientific documentation:

Contact:

Henk Hilderink, henk.hilderink@pbl.nl

Publications and applications

Titel Type of practice Updated date
IA Report: Communication demonstrating Carbon Capture and Geological Storage (CCS) in emerging developing countries: financing the EU-China Near Zero Emissions Coal Plant project Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 12:25
IA Report: Communication on limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 22:24
IA Report: Communication on Winning the Battle against Global Climate Change Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-05 11:40
IA Report: Council directive on commercial diesel Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 22:56
IA Report: Decision of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning the seventh framework programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007-2013) Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-05 12:05
IA Report: Determining transitional Union-wide rules for the harmonised free allocation of emission allowances (2011) Application of a Model or Method 2013-07-26 19:32
IA Report: Directive on the geological storage of carbon dioxide and amending Council Directives 85/337/EEC, 96/61/EC, 2000/60/EC, 2001/80/EC, 2004/35/EC, 2006/12/EC and Regulation (EC) No 1013/2006 Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 20:03
IA Report: Package of Implementation measures for the EU's objectives on climate change and renewable energy for 2020 Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 19:42
IA Report: Proposal for a Directive on aviation security charges Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 12:27
IA Report: Proposal for a Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 16:15
IA Report: Proposal for a Regulation setting up the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 22:49
IA Report: Strategic EU Energy Review Application of a Model or Method 2013-09-03 21:25